『황금, 설탕, 이자』. 제목이 뭔가 이상하다고 느끼실 것입니다. 하지만 제목이 상징하는 것은 책을 읽으시다 보면 자연스럽게 알게 될 것입니다. 나아가 황금, 설탕, 이자, 이 세 가지가 결합하면 무슨 일이 일어났는지도 알게 될 것입니다. 예컨대 헨리 키신저는 『세계 질서』에서 1948년 이후 세계 질서가 등장한 사실은 지적했었지만, 왜 이 질서가 등장했는지는 설명하지 않았습니다. 하지만 필자는 1948년 이후 세계 질서가 왜 등장했는지 황금, 설탕, 이자의 결합을 통해 설명할 것입니다.
특히 책을 읽다 보면 이 세 가지의 결합은 왜 서양이 동양을 지배하게 되었는지, 미국과 중국 충돌의 승자는 누가 될 것인지, 미래 인류의 발전 방향은 어떻게 흘러가야 하는지도 알려 주는 중요한 요인이라는 것을 알게 될 것이라 생각합니다. 즉 재러드 다이아몬드는 『총, 균, 쇠』가 서양이 동양을 지배한 요인이라고 주장했지만, 필자는 총, 균, 쇠가 아니라 『금, 당, 리』의 결합이야말로 서양이 동양을 지배한 원인이라고 감히 주장할 것입니다.
이 책은 역사책입니다. 하지만 단순히 과거에 무슨 일이 일어났는지를 기록한 역사책은 아닙니다. 따라서 역사적 사실을 기록하는 과정에서 약간의 오류 가능성은 있을 수 있습니다. 다만 필자는 황금, 설탕, 이자라는 특정 관점에서 과거 인간 사회의 역사를 추적하고, 이를 통해 현재의 시사점을 찾아내려고 노력했습니다.
서울대학교 경제학과, 서울대학교 행정대학원, JD at
University of New Hampshire School of Law, Attorney at Law in New York State
행정고시 41회, 산업자원부 자원정책과, 투자진흥과, 국무총리실 심사평가심의관실, 지식경제부 부품소재총괄과, 대한무역투자 진흥공사 파견근무, 우정사업본부 대체투자팀장, 산업통상 자원부 수출입 과장, 산업통상자원부 무역규범과장, 무역위원회 덤핑조사과장, 現 산업통상자원부 서기관
저서
외국인직접투자 얼마나 알고 계십니까? (2002, 공저)
한일 투자협정 해설 (2003, 공저)
대체투자 파헤치기 (상) - 세계 경제동향, 헤지펀드 編(2014)
대체투자 파헤치기 (중) - 타이타노마키의 서막: PEF 編(2015)
대체투자 파헤치기 (하) - 타이타노마키의 2막: 주주행동주의, 주요 대기업 그룹 해부 編(2015)
황금, 설탕, 이자 - 바빌로니아의 수수께끼 編(上-1) 券 (2024)
황금, 설탕, 이자 - 바빌로니아의 수수께끼 編(上-2) 券 (2024)
I. 프롤로그 ? 황금의 지배, 무역의 지배, 금융의 지배, 세계의 지배
01 로마와 미국
1) 로마 제국의 아바타, 미국 ··············································································· 1
Fun Fun 상식: 옥타비아누스 황제의 암살? ······························································· 7
2) 그러나, 미국은 로마와 다르다! ····································································· 13
02 미국의 위기와 달러
1) 1990년대, 중국의 세계 시장 편입 ································································· 16
2) 드골의 달러 패권 공격 ················································································· 22
3) 유로화 = 기축통화?······················································································ 26
4) 아직은 참을 수 있는 달러의 가벼움 ······························································· 46
03 미국의 무역과 달러
1) 길더화와 파운드화 ······································································································ 53
2) 기축통화 힘의 근원 ······················································································ 56
04 뱅킹의 힘 - 달러 패권의 원천
1) 바빌로니아의 에기비 가문, 무역상 그리고 뱅커 ············································· 58
2) 중국, 인도, 이슬람은? - 뱅킹의 태동과 고도화················································ 60
3) 페니키아, 그리스, 로마는?············································································ 71
4) 로마의 멸망과 중세 암흑시대 ········································································ 74
5) 이슬람의 황금시대와 머천트 뱅커의 등장 ······················································· 76
6) 2세대 머천트 뱅커와 지리상 발견 ································································· 80
7) 2세대 머천트 뱅커와 산업혁명 ······································································ 85
8) 무역 = 달러, 라마수의 탄생 ·········································································· 88
05 달러 패권 = 세계 패권
1) 1달러 지폐와 호루스의 눈 ············································································ 94
2) 이집트의 파루크 1세와 이란의 모사데그 ························································ 97
3) 이집트의 나세르 ························································································ 107
4) 이탈리아의 마테이와 독일, 일본의 부상 ······················································· 110
5) 미국의 헨리 키신저와 사우디아라비아의 파이잘 사우드 국왕 ························· 114
Fun Fun 상식: 사우드 왕가의 우여곡절 독립 ·············································· 117
6) 로널드 레이건과 이부카 마사루 ·································································· 122
7) 브래디 계획과 후쿠야마의 자유주의 종언 ····················································· 127
8) 조지 소로스와 아시아 금융위기 ·································································· 131
9) 이라크의 사담 후세인과 미국의 마크 저커버그 ············································· 132
10) 미국의 역린과 이란 제재 ·········································································· 136
11) 「황금, 설탕, 이자」와 키신저의 세계 질서 ··················································· 139
06 중국의 전략적 선택 - 자본시장과 외환시장의 통제
1) 위안화 절하 위기? ····················································································· 142
2) 중국 당국과 헤지펀드의 엔드 게임 ······························································ 144
3) 위안화 절하, 용서 받지 못한 자 ··································································· 152
07 중국의 최후 선택 - 위안화의 ???!
1) 위안화 패권을 향하여 ················································································ 158
2) ??? 위안화, ??? 위안화, 위안화 ??? ············································· 161
3) 최후의, 그러나 가장 확실한 수단, 전쟁 ························································ 170
08 위안화 ???의 전제 조건
1) 「중국제조 2025」와 「신품질 생산력」 ·························································· 171
2) 현대전의 맥락 ··························································································· 173
3) 러시아와 함께 춤을 ···················································································· 177
4) 황금 사냥꾼 ······························································································ 198
5) 비둘기 연준 ······························································································ 200
6) 일대일로: 아시아! 아프리카!! 유럽!!! ························································· 201
7) 미국과 마창 시합? 정치, 항공모함, 중화사상, 희토류, 남중국해······················ 212
09 미국과 중국 - 제국 충돌(Empires Clashes)의 승자는?
1) 무역전쟁: 백년 전쟁, 임진왜란, 태평양 전쟁 ················································ 261
2) 제국의 충돌: 상호확증파괴의 공포, 체스와 바둑 ··········································· 268
3) Great Rapprochement ············································································ 281
4) 투키디데스의 함정 ····················································································· 290
5) 황금 = 뱅킹? - ① 신대륙의 황금 ② 오일 달러 ③ 일본과 중앙아시아 ·············· 292
