강자가 살아남는 것이 아니라 살아남는 자가 강자다!
두 번의 경제위기에서 한국은 어떻게 살아남았나?
강만수 전 기획재정부 장관이 기록한 한국경제 생존기

“한국경제는 시련과 위기 속에 피어난 도전의 역사입니다. 당신은 늘 그 도전의 앞자리에 섰습니다. 2008년 글로벌금융위기 때는 기획재정부 장관으로서 한국경제가 위기를 딛고 일어나도록 이끌었습니다. 설득엔 서툴렀지만 포기하거나 돌아가지 않았습니다. 세월은 흐르지만 영혼이 깃든 정책은 남습니다. 당신의 헌신은 오래도록 기억될 것입니다. 때로는 비판하며, 때로는 옹호했던 기자단이 오늘 이 자그마한 감사패를 드립니다.”

저자가 장관에서 물러난 후 몇 년이 지난 2012년 11월 15일, 글로벌금융위기 당시 기획재정부 출입기자단이 저자에게 전달한 감사패의 내용이다. “18년 기자생활을 했는데 지난 1년간 쓴 기사가 과거 17년간 쓴 기사보다 많았다”라는 어느 기자의 말처럼 2008년은 글로벌경제위기 극복을 위해 수많은 대책들을 쏟아낸 한 해였고, 그 중심에서 저자는 누구보다 무거운 책임을 어깨에 짊어져야 했다. 1997년 재정경제부 차관으로서 아시아금융위기와 싸웠고 2008년 기획재정부 장관으로서 또다시 글로벌경제위기에 맞서야 했던, 어쩌면 유일하게 두 번의 위기 모두를 가장 치열하고 냉혹한 현장에서 온몸으로 겪어낸 저자의 이력은 그 자체로 한국경제가 걸어온 길을 증명한다.

이 책은 한국의 모습을 바꿔놓은 두 위기, 아시아금융위기와 세계경제위기에 관한 흥미 있는 기록으로서, 험난한 파도 사이를 직접 헤쳐 나갔던 관점에서 위기요인의 확산, 격동의 날들, 위기극복을 위한 정치적ㆍ외교적 협상에 대한 상세한 내용을 서술하고 있다. 위기에 부딪혀 한국경제가 어떠한 선택을 했는지, 과연 그 선택은 어떠한 맥락에서 이루어졌는지, 또 어떠한 결과로 이어져왔는지를 이해하고자 한다면 반드시 읽어야 할 책이다.

PROLOGUE

CHAPTER 1 _ CRISES REDUX

01 Boom and Bust Cycle
Recurring crises
1997 Asian crisis: Temptation and mismatch
2008 global crisis: Imbalance and burst bubble
Crises in Korea: Trial and error

02 Bubbles Eventually Burst
Investor or speculator
Greed and speculation
Inevitable burst of bubble

03 Crises like Typhoons
Misjudgments by authorities
Fearful tranquility
Tariff and currency wars: Beggar-my-neighbor
Birth of IMF and GATT


CHAPTER 2 _ 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

04 Liquidity Mismatch
Typhoon from Southeast Asia
Capital flood and currency appreciation
Sudden outflow of foreign money
Forced change: IMF program
Wounds of crisis
Asian cooperation: Chiang Mai Initiative

05 Korean Economy in a Nutcracker
Pre-crisis missteps
Nut in nutcracker
Overvalued won and flat tariff rate
Cracked nut: Deterioration in current account balance
Failure in customs management
Steps to improve competitiveness

06 1997 Foreign Exchange Crisis in Korea
Economic health indicator: Current account balance
Crisis prevention measures
Kia Motors: Too big to fail
Escaping trap of flat tariff rate
Overcoming trap of overvalued won
Fuse of a crisis: Merchant banks
Sharp withdrawals of short-term funds
Failed financial reforms
Efforts coming to naught

07 Forced Changes: IMF Bailout
Requesting IMF help
Strategies of negotiation with IMF
IMF economic program
Presidents’ talk: Finish in one day
Consensus on economic program
Side letter: Tough negotiations
Birth of consolidated supervisory body
Record bailout: US$58.3 billion
Negotiation for debt rollover
Agreement in New York
Birth of a leftist government


CHAPTER 3 _ LEGACY OF CRISIS

08 Repaying of Borrowed Income
Eagerness and ignorance
Crisis wounds: Massive job losses and closures
Survival tools: Exchange rate and foreign reserves

09 Crisis Lessons: No Friend in Need
Crisis repeats itself
External balance should be prioritized
Exchange rate is a matter of sovereignty
Foreign exchange reserves are life line
R&D supplies edge

10 Legacy of Leftist Government
A half blessing in disguise
Low investment
Return to current account deficit
Inadequate R&D investment
Labor market setback
Strengthened financial base

11 Elections and Platforms
Election economics: Good policies are bad pledges
Vision of Top 7 Nation
Pledges: Toward advanced country and community of hope
Presidential transition committee


CHAPTER 4 _ 2008 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

12 Unprecedented Global Crisis in 2008
Imbalance and burst of bubble
Progress of crisis: Too connected to fail
Unprecedented responses: All means mobilized
Unprecedented currency war: Open the safes
Results of crisis management: Long road ahead

13 Reflection of 2008 Economic Crisis
Obese economy: Excessive consumption and investment
‘Diet’ economy: Work hard, save more, and invest more
Inconvenient truth: Troubles in financial system
Leadership and cooperation: Birth of G-20

14 Economics of Restraint
Lessons from crisis: Restraint and reform
Dilemmas of economics: Keynes, Friedman, Hayek and Schumpeter
Experiences of Korea: Conflicting choices and policy mix
Economics of managed restraint: Toil and sweat


CHAPTER 5 _ KOREA’S RESPONSES IN 2008

15 Caught in Turmoil
Already limping in three traps
Subprime crisis on horizon
Managing crisis first

16 Strategies against Crisis: Get up and Go!
Ride out with get-up-and-go
Crisis is opportunity
Preemptive, decisive, and sufficient measures

17 Urgent Measures: Survivors Become the Strong
First move: Normalizing exchange rates
Second move: Lowering oil tax and tariff rates
Third move: Tax rebates of 240,000 won
Fourth move: Cutting interest rate and injecting liquidity
Fifth move: Korea-US currency swap
Last move: Guaranteeing bank debt with US$100 billion

18 Investment Environment: Maximizing Potential
Tax cuts: The best tool
CRET change: Ending political violence
5% of GDP in R&D: Topping the world
Quality improvement: Work-study regime
Regulatory innovation: Regulation Equity System
Expansion of labor supply: Early employment and overseas Koreans

19 Management Environment: Best in the World
Fiscal expansion: Offense brings victory
SOC investment: Four rivers development
Forex controls: Stopping ‘hot’ money
Sovereignty over forex rates: G-20 Seoul Summit agreement
Financing for overseas projects: Fostering mega-banks
Social capital build-up: Trust decides 20% of growth
Mobilizing externally: Korean diaspora and FTA

20 We Survived Stronger: Top 7 Exporter
Fastest recovery in OECD
World’s seventh-largest exporter
World’s highest R&D investment
Switchover to capital exporter
Asia’s top credit rating
Rule maker: First non-Western chair of G-20
First shift from recipient to donor 432


CHAPTER 6 _ POLITICAL ECONOMICS TO ADVANCE

21 2015 Peak vs. 2050 Richest
New abnormal and Asian century
Economics of conflicts: Much food, many problems
Raging populism on the rise
Legacy of tragic history

22 Political Economics for Advanced Nation
Beyond polarization and conflicts: Risks and opportunities
Path toward a first class nation: Growth, balance, and open-up
Political economics of spirited minds: Never up, never in

23 Way Forward: Let the Outcomes Speak
The unforgettable 2008!
Fate of public officials: Do duty, expect criticism
Last bastion of the nation: Populism, no future

EPILOGUE